It was a year of devastation and wreckage for the region, and also a year of warning to humankind of the dangers of global warming and climate change. The impending cost of inaction could be catastrophic for both humans and economies, say experts.
In 2011, Asia was hit by some of the worst natural disasters in living memory, leaving thousands of people dead, millions homeless and wreaking havoc on domestic economies.
Floods swamped large parts of eastern Australia and Thailand while Japan and New Zealand experienced their worst ever earthquakes.
In China, prolonged droughts and floods have caused havoc in central and eastern parts of the country with the Yangtze River basin suffering from both drought and severe flooding.
In 2010, natural disasters caused $109 billion in economic damage – three times more than in 2009 – according to the United Nations. This year that figure will be much higher with damage from the earthquake and tsunami which destroyed much of Northeast Japan in March costing in excess of $300 billion.
The Australian floods in January cost the economy around $30 billion and the earthquake that destroyed much of Christchurch on the south island of New Zealand in February left a damages bill in excess of $20 billion.
The full economic cost of the recent floods in Thailand is still being calculated, but it is expected to run into the tens of billions of dollars.
While Asia is no stranger to natural disasters, scientists now say more extreme weather-related disasters are in store – droughts, floods and typhoons – owing to climate change as temperatures increase.
At a recent seminar on migration and global warming held at the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) headquarters in Manila, delegates were told that “the worst is yet to come”.
The United Nations and the World Bank have echoed similar warnings.
The ADB says if climate change is not addressed now, it will severely hit the region’s development and affect programs to cut poverty.
The ADB says if climate change is not addressed now, it will severely hit the region’s development and affect programs to cut poverty.
“Global warming is likely to cause rice yield potential to decline by up to 50 percent on average by 2100, compared to 1990, in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, and a large part of the dominant forest or woodland could be replaced by tropical savanna and shrub with low or no carbon sequestration potential,” an ADB study says.
It warns that the potential economic cost of inaction will be huge.
“If the world continues ‘business-as-usual’ emissions trends, the cost to these countries each year could equal a loss of 6.7 percent of their combined gross domestic product by 2100, more than twice the world average,” the ADB says.
Dennis de la Torre of the Philippine Climate Commission says the country can expect mean temperatures “in all areas of the Philippines to rise by 0.9 degrees C to 1.1 degrees C in 2020 and by 1.8 to 2.2 degrees C by 2050”.
The Philippines is often referred to as “Typhoon Alley” due to the fact that it is the first country in Southeast Asia to be hit by typhoons and tropical storms as they barrel in over the Pacific Ocean. As the country is poor, the impact on the livelihood of millions each year is significant.
“The Philippines, as an archipelagic nation, is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The country ranks number one in the world in terms of vulnerability to typhoons and third in terms of people exposed to such seasonal events,” De la Torre says.
De la Torre quotes a recent Climate Change Vulnerability Index, released by the global risk advisory firm Maplecroft, as saying the Philippines ranks sixth among 16 countries in the world as extremely vulnerable to climate change.
The ADB, in a study on climate change and its impact on Southeast Asia, has said there are a number of factors that explain why the region is particularly susceptible to climate change.
Southeast Asia’s 563 million people, who rely heavily on farming, are concentrated along coastlines measuring 173,251 kilometers long. An increase in extreme weather events and forest fires arising from climate change jeopardizes vital export industries in the region that also accounts for over 40 percent of total employment and about 11 percent of GDP.
“...the region is highly vulnerable to droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones associated with warming. Its high economic dependence on natural resources and forestry – as one of the world’s biggest providers of forest products – also puts it at risk,” the ADB study says.
“Rapid economic growth and structural transformation in Southeast Asia helped lift millions out of extreme poverty in recent decades. But poverty remains high and the poor are the most vulnerable to climate change.”
The ADB says mean temperature increased at .1-.3 degrees C per decade between 1951 and 2000; rainfall trended downward during 1960-2000; and sea levels have risen 1- 3 millimeters a year.
Heat waves, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones have been more intense and frequent, causing extensive damage to property, assets, and human life.
Recorded floods and storms have risen dramatically, particularly in the Philippines, rising from just under 20 during 1960-1969 to nearly 120 by 2000-2008, the study says.
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