Every year millions of people around the world die of diseases that are preventable. The cost to society and to the economy from non-communicable diseases (NCDs), often called lifestyle diseases, is enormous and growing especially among low- and middle-income countries.
“NCDs are altering demographics. They are stunting development. And they are impacting economic growth,” said Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser, the current president of the UN General Assembly, on the opening of a high level meeting held recently.
Al-Nasser is right.
Nowhere is this more apparent than in Asiawhich has been experiencing strong economic growth for more than a decade fueled by the economic rise of China.
According to data made available by the World Health Organization (WHO), of the 57 million deaths in 2008, 36 million (about 60 percent of the total) were due to NCDs – mainly cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, cancers and chronic respiratory ailments. Four out of every five of these deaths occur in developing countries, including many in Asia.
In Asia, NCDs are responsible for 54 percent of deaths and about a third are among people aged under 60 years.
The WHO estimates that between 2005 and 2015, in Southeast Asiaalone, infectious disease deaths will fall by 16 percent while NCD deaths will rise by 21 percent.
Bad food, lack of exercise, pollution, long-working hours, sedentary jobs, stress, and aging populations contribute to the higher incidence of these diseases – a phenomenon which WHO Secretary-General Margaret Chan described as “a slow-motion disaster,” during her speech at a United Nations summit in September.
“These are the diseases that break the bank. Left unchecked, these diseases have the capacity to devour the benefits of economic gain. In some countries, for example, care for diabetes alone consumes as much as 15 percent of the national healthcare budget,” she said.
“In the absence of urgent action, the rising financial burden of these diseases will reach levels that are beyond the capacity of even the wealthiest countries in the world to manage.”
Paul French, the co-author of Fat China, a book that examines the growing incidence of obesity in China, says the economic effects of NCDs are three-fold. First, individuals may be unable to work which would impact both their own productivity and the livelihoods of their dependents. Second, the wider economy suffers as NCDs lead to reduced productivity, more sick days, longer recovery times, and more. Third, significant additional costs for overstretched healthcare systems.
Almost half of those who die of chronic diseases are in their productive years. The economic consequences through losses in productivity will be dramatic, according to health experts.
The WHO estimates that between 2005 and 2015 income loss could rise to as much as $558 billion in China, $237 billion in India, $303 billion in Russiaand $33 billion in the UK.
A joint study by HarvardUniversity’s Schoolof Public Healthand the World Economic Forum (WEF) in September claimed that the cost to the global economy over the next 20 years could be as high as $47 trillion.
Alarm bells are already ringing.
In September, the United Nations General Assembly held a two-day health summit to try and hammer out an international strategy to address the growing problem.
The summit was unanimous in its concern that NCDs slow down economic development because of a loss of productivity, high healthcare costs and often the premature death of young and productive workers. And NCDs are rapidly becoming more prevalent.
About one third of NCD-related deaths in Southeast Asiaare among people between 15 and 59 years old, the prime productive age. In China, about half of the 9 million deaths linked to NCDs between now and 2030 will impact working-age people.
“Families, countries and economies are losing people in their most productive years,” Olivier Raynaud, a senior director of health at the WEF, said in a statement.
“NCDs have the potential to not only bankrupt health systems but also put a brake on the global economy.”
The WEF-Harvard study also noted that the cumulative outpost loss caused by these illnesses represents about 4 percent of annual global gross domestic product (GDP) over the coming two decades.
“This is not a health issue, this is an economic issue – it touches on all sectors of society,” Eva Jane-Llopis, WEF’s head of chronic disease and wellness said in an interview recently.
The problem is “serious and growing”, according to Dr Cherian Varghese, an expert in NCDs with the WHO Western Pacific Region based in Manila. And the irony is that many of the diseases can be prevented by campaigning and government action against tobacco use, alcohol, poor diets and promoting healthier lifestyles and exercise.
For instance, tobacco kills more than six million people worldwide each year either by direct use or through second-hand smoking.
“The WHO estimates that by 2020 that number will increase to 7.5 million accounting for 10 percent of all deaths,” Dr Varghese says.
Smoking is said to be responsible for 71 percent of all lung cancer deaths, 42 percent of chronic respiratory disease and nearly 10 percent of cardiovascular disease. Smoking is most common among men in low- to middle-income countries, according to the WHO.
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